3. Disease modelling

When a new disease occurs, doctors want to know (and the public!) the answers to the following questions:

- what is the method of spreading? sneezing? etc

- how fast is it going to spread?

- how many people might catch it?

- how many people might be badly affected ?

To do this, they will use a computer model. 

The model will contain collected data on hundreds of known diseases, such as method of catching it, how it spreads, how virulent it is and so on.

The model will then examine the information that is available about the current disease and map it against the data it already has.

It will try to predict what is likely to happen

Scientists can change the model to take into account things like

- vaccines

- different climates

- travel patterns

- social wealth

- age and health of people

From this, they can model different scenarios

So modelling in this instance is there to provide assurance - it cannot stop the disease, or even slow it down - but it allows governments to plan a way forward and let people know what is in place to limits its effect.

Effective modelling is a crucial part of planning for the future.